What is a Pandemic?
When I first began speaking with Karen she expressed a concern for pandemic preparedness. I'd like to take a few days to explain to you just what we can expect from a pandemic. Each Friday at blog.TotallyReady.com I give tips for preparing your family so please visit the blog and begin now to prepare. As you prepare for a pandemic you will also be preparing for many many other emergencies so get busy!
We used to believe that the chances of something happening on the other side of the world directly affecting us here were pretty slim. We know in the case of a pandemic this is naïve thinking. As we can travel the globe in a matter of hours, so can a deadly strain of the flu, which The Harvard Initiative for Global Health at Harvard University predicts could kill as many as 81 million people worldwide.
Are you concerned, as are so many, about the possibility of bird flu affecting your family? Government officials say you should be. Most scientists say you should be. But what is a pandemic?
A seasonal flu occurs predictably, usually during the winter. Humans have some natural immunity to the disease and there are vaccines available.
An epidemic is defined as an infectious disease which spreads more broadly and rapidly through a given population than is the norm. For example, we expect a certain number of cases of the flu each year. When the number of those affected grows unusually high it is considered an epidemic. The body may or may not have some immunity and vaccines may or may not be available. As an example, HIV is considered an epidemic for which there is no immunity and no vaccine.
A Pandemic may be defined as an epidemic which affects an entire continent, region, or the entire globe. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) a pandemic may start when three conditions have been met:
· A disease emerges which is new to the human population
· The disease causes serious illness in the human population
· The disease spreads rapidly and sustainably through the population
When a disease is new it simply means our immune systems have not experienced the organism before and are unprepared to deal with it. The disease will then cause serious illness or death. The disease will spread too quickly to be contained and will continue to spread until it "burns" itself out.
Historians suggest that influenza pandemics have probably happened during at least the last four centuries. During the 20th century three pandemics occurred.
The first and by far the most serious, began in 1918, Spanish Influenza. It is estimated approximately 20 to 40 percent of the worldwide population became ill and over 20 million died. Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 675,000 deaths from the flu occurred in the United States, 50,000,000 worldwide. Many died very quickly, many within 24 hours of the first symptoms occurring. Many who survived initially died from complications of pneumonia. One of the most frightening aspects of the Spanish flu was its ability to kill young, otherwise healthy, adults. The mortality rate was the highest among this group and pregnant women. It seems their healthy immune systems actually attached themselves
In February 1957, the Asian influenza pandemic was first identified. Unlike the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, the 1957 pandemic virus was identified quickly. The virus came to the U.S. with a series of small outbreaks during the summer of 1957 (note, this was during the summer, not the usual flu season). However, when children returned to school in the fall the disease increased and spread quickly. Most deaths occurred between September 1957 and March 1958. By December 1957, the worst seemed to be over. However, during January and February 1958, a "second wave" of infections developed, as is typical during a pandemic. The disease infected one segment of the population, appeared to be under control and then returned to infect another segment. Although the Asian flu pandemic was not as devastating as the Spanish flu, about 69,800 died in the United States alone and between one and two million worldwide. This time the elderly had the highest rates of death.
In early 1968, an Influenza pandemic was first detected in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Flu. As early as September of that year, illness was detected in the United States. The disease became wide spread in December and peaked in January of 1969. Deaths from this virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969. Some 33,800 Americans died, most of these over 65, making it the mildest pandemic in the 20th century. Worldwide 700,000 lost their lives.
What are the differences between a seasonal flu and a pandemic flu?
Seasonal Flu:
· Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs annually
· Some immunity built up from previous exposure
· Healthy adults usually not at risk for serious complications, the very young, elderly and those with compromised immune systems are at highest risk.
· Health systems can meet patient needs
· Vaccines are developed based on known flu strains and are available
· Symptoms: fever, cough, runny nose, muscle pain
· Deaths often caused by complications, such as pneumonia
· Causes minor impact on society
· Manageable impact on domestic and world economy
Pandemic Flu:
· Occurs rarely
· No previous exposure thus, little or no pre-existing immunity
· Healthy people may be at increased risk for serious complications
· Health systems may be overwhelmed
· Vaccine probably would not be available in the early stages of a pandemic
· Symptoms may be more severe and complications more frequent
· May cause major impact on society (e.g. widespread restrictions on travel, closings of schools and businesses, cancellation of large public gatherings)
· Potential for severe impact on domestic and world economy (pandemicflu.gov)
You can and should prepare now for the possibility of a pandemic. Our government, governments throughout the world, the World Health Organization and Relief Agencies worldwide all believe a pandemic is coming. If not now, soon.